NFL · resolved market
Will Elon Musk attend Super Bowl LX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5036581ef0a904ee7c3f08340479cc0872da3de9eed0c5dd1ad9771c5cfca4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes | 36c | 1,695$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 64c | 780.56$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…6890backed Yes | 63c | 667.28$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 79c | 490.11$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 63c | 394.59$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 60c | 329$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 63c | 266.92$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 78c | 228.85$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…cacabacked Yes | 35c | 222.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 21c | 202.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +197.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ea…15cdbacked No | 69c | 184$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +204.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed No | 55c | 157.77$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 20c | 131.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7033…3d7abacked Yes | 39c | 129.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81b2…2547backed Yes | 44c | 114.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 107.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 67c | 79.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 60c | 59.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…3885backed No | 72c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 42c | 48.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 66c | 40.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6774…08ecbacked No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…baebbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk attend Super Bowl LX?this page
- Will Barron Trump attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Donald Trump attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Erika Kirk attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Gavin Newsom attend Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will J.D. Vance attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Jeff Bezos attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Justin Bieber attend Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will LeBron James attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Lionel Messi attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Livvy Dunne attend Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Nicki Minaj attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Sam Altman attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Taylor Swift attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Tom Brady attend Super Bowl LX?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.