NFL · resolved market
Will J.D. Vance attend Super Bowl LX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3811f52ddb626fb0fbc40db074c618312dd7bcb849a0836d17ebbc1f52cabcb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $213,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $184,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0fda…8405backed Yes | 0c | 50,215$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed Yes | 0c | 15,444$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…3ff6backed Yes | 0c | 10,495$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d6…893dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,975$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 1c | 8,675$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.52 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 8,254$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc20b…e1d2backed Yes | 1c | 5,510$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…90eabacked Yes | 1c | 4,538$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a4…a4babacked Yes | 1c | 4,076$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…84edbacked Yes | 3c | 2,949$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 1c | 2,501$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…07bdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,170$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1daa…bc4bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,158$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 2,057$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…e884backed Yes | 2c | 1,807$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 2c | 1,490$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,383$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,317$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…fc35backed Yes | 1c | 1,187$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7b…435cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…7cc4backed Yes | 1c | 921.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…13d9backed Yes | 2c | 914.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7d5abacked Yes | 3c | 796.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 777.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 144 | 4.9%7 W · 137 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c37…5031backed Yes | 3c | 622.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe492…8309backed Yes | 2c | 542.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4a…b153backed Yes | 2c | 534.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…ed89backed Yes | 5c | 397.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will J.D. Vance attend Super Bowl LX?this page
- Will Barron Trump attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Donald Trump attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Elon Musk attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Erika Kirk attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Gavin Newsom attend Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Jeff Bezos attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Justin Bieber attend Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will LeBron James attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Lionel Messi attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Livvy Dunne attend Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Nicki Minaj attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Sam Altman attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Taylor Swift attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Tom Brady attend Super Bowl LX?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.