NFL · resolved market
Will Jeff Bezos attend Super Bowl LX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ad5f1d273d097da93008bae24a539ce05728d35fd992739097cbf6829c46657
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 13c | 5,898$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.96 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb8…69edbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked Yes | 31c | 2,372$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.56 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes | 38c | 2,251$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.49 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed No | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…25a7backed No | 72c | 1,924$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 24c | 1,362$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.94 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 53c | 1,202$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd165…b34cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,141$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed No | 75c | 893.79$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.3 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 17c | 818.78$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.33 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…ab59backed No | 75c | 806.2$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8715…447dbacked No | 75c | 798.17$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…4020backed Yes | 28c | 783.91$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a7…613abacked Yes | 29c | 742.56$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b3…76f4backed No | 74c | 672.34$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 26c | 532.91$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.56 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16d4…6e9bbacked Yes | 21c | 405.65$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 25c | 396.6$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…0e27backed Yes | 4c | 301.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 24c | 291.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6a…dd10backed No | 71c | 280$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…de5abacked Yes | 25c | 240$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecf0…0d38backed Yes | 26c | 196$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 178.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 68c | 155.87$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…4cd0backed Yes | 68c | 146.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 70c | 136.42$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ea…038cbacked Yes | 23c | 125.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5863…04dbbacked No | 74c | 104.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3716…69a7backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…4055backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ba…6a16backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 24c | 80.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a78…4b11backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1257…c9b2backed Yes | 28c | 75.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5624…b5c4backed Yes | 25c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa835…557dbacked Yes | 41c | 70.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 62.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed No | 57c | 60.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…0aa1backed Yes | 29c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 66c | 59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859b…7b69backed Yes | 26c | 58.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…58d7backed Yes | 25c | 58.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…da55backed Yes | 31c | 54.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa2…61d5backed Yes | 23c | 51.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83af…bcc6backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…3ad8backed No | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 48c | 35.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 33.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7e…030dbacked Yes | 45c | 33.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f4…6707backed No | 77c | 25.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked No | 79c | 24.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8b…0c13backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 69c | 17.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 63c | 16.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jeff Bezos attend Super Bowl LX?this page
- Will Barron Trump attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Donald Trump attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Elon Musk attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Erika Kirk attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Gavin Newsom attend Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will J.D. Vance attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Justin Bieber attend Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will LeBron James attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Lionel Messi attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Livvy Dunne attend Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Nicki Minaj attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Sam Altman attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Taylor Swift attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Tom Brady attend Super Bowl LX?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.