Venezuela · resolved market
Odds of Maduro out in 2025 Under 15% by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2cca85fd210a0e4eb3d7cd077cfa159c20337a51a9914419a8ca69c4d42535b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 7c | 8,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 1c | 6,378$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked Yes | 79c | 2,167$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 45c | 1,000$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 33c | 424.76$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.97 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 44c | 399.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 55c | 398.71$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.49 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 59c | 299.95$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdea…27a7backed Yes | 65c | 286.13$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked No | 67c | 208.95$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 61c | 164.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 40c | 164$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 56c | 152.89$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +268.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 63c | 130$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 19c | 127.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +38%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 48c | 110$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 80c | 97.53$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Yes | 69c | 94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 93.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 49c | 82.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…961abacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 50cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc7…0a2bbacked Yes | 72c | 69.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 45c | 68.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 43c | 68.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…dd0ebacked No | 47c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 51c | 49.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 49c | 49.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88cc…c3fabacked Yes | 54c | 47.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a8…4cdebacked No | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Yes | 50c | 44.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 46c | 44.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 37c | 34.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 64c | 21.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23a5…2c53backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0960…455dbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6586…c69cbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2793…4e49backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds of Maduro out in 2025 Under 15% by Friday?this page
- Odds of Maduro out in 2025 Over 20% by Friday?Yes won
- Odds of Maduro out in 2025 Over 25% by Friday?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.