Venezuela · resolved market
Odds of Maduro out in 2025 Over 25% by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x925ccb8e0194335aad5c3fdbd35d29a3ebf6eddd148ac9d3cca25efe76caa39b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 2,031$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 1,900$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 11c | 1,104$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.49 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 24c | 499.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Yes | 3c | 443.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…1307backed Yes | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 75c | 372.49$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2793…4e49backed Yes | 31c | 320$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 73c | 264.52$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked Yes | 33c | 232$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc49…0daabacked Yes | 27c | 223.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 10c | 168.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 78c | 151.94$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…4af0backed Yes | 11c | 144.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked No | 67c | 142$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 126.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…1d80backed Yes | 28c | 122.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 15c | 112.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 73c | 107.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Yes | 24c | 94.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…d18ebacked Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6586…c69cbacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 76c | 74.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…aa96backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…961abacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 19c | 61.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 52.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed No | 67c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked No | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f4…e93dbacked Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 67c | 37.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 71c | 23.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa187…30e9backed No | 74c | 22.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 50cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds of Maduro out in 2025 Over 25% by Friday?this page
- Odds of Maduro out in 2025 Over 20% by Friday?Yes won
- Odds of Maduro out in 2025 Under 15% by Friday?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.