TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Stranger Things: Season 5 have more than 75 million views the week of the finale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$363,151
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$265,581

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $363,151 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x12d3…53c1backed Yes2c39,030$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.82138.1%8 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick24cpaid-29.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x372a…3a49backed Yes1c29,009$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.71520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-69.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x643f…e306backed Yes2c24,508$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.333333.3%11 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-37%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4cf1…ee87backed Yes0c21,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf02…09dbbacked Yes1c19,250$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0ef…39b6backed Yes4c18,219$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.751741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e4c…8804backed Yes1c15,885$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes1c13,975$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.733534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae4…1113backed Yes1c10,634$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes21c8,888$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,855.366731.3%21 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-50.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b02…caa6backed Yes5c8,181$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe754…1da1backed Yes1c4,861$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7216…e7d0backed Yes2c4,261$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0260%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x334e…708cbacked Yes5c4,256$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c3,562$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.717010%17 W · 153 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3a9…3331backed Yes1c3,356$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf66c…4ab1backed Yes0c2,906$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.62440%0 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes4c2,756$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c2,737$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.352781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5553…4fa9backed Yes1c2,611$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes4c2,483$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102666.1%4 W · 62 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c2,127$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.982042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd7a…7a35backed Yes2c2,025$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9359…6aacbacked Yes6c2,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc296…1046backed Yes1c1,842$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes1c1,791$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes4c1,698$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.22934.3%4 W · 89 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes1c1,545$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.012313%3 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-55.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes3c1,511$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.19901.1%1 W · 89 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick6cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,479$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.841,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes4c1,478$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.91674.5%3 W · 64 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d6…aa38backed Yes3c1,390$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcd7…7869backed Yes3c1,315$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-55%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes3c1,159$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2611129.7%33 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08f2…1d96backed Yes3c1,153$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2950%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes9c1,106$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c47…c146backed Yes1c1,051$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29ff…8357backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-56.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2c46…00c2backed Yes5c973.23$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes6c861.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd57c…2329backed Yes7c841.62$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e8…a97dbacked Yes2c811.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e32…8496backed Yes10c808.2$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5615…1b58backed Yes3c674.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x387f…ee9fbacked Yes8c671.38$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe53d…3d2cbacked Yes2c668$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes6c499.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f61…c75abacked Yes4c472.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-21%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xede9…d9b0backed Yes7c450.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2135…f305backed Yes9c444.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe212…c93ebacked Yes23c431.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a6b…3ac1backed Yes2c402$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e55…6427backed Yes8c396.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd030…8db6backed Yes7c357.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc82b…ae40backed Yes9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca60…40c9backed Yes7c328.52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x659c…a086backed Yes8c323.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes4c304.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1280%0 W · 28 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1706…52dbbacked Yes10c302.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x209b…ffd2backed No69c286.99$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-70.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dc7…0a2bbacked Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27d3…8facbacked Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe9a…cf52backed Yes8c262.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc462…c00ebacked Yes5c256.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3754…9c94backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe894…fe58backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2559…2ef4backed Yes7c224.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8a…958ebacked Yes8c223.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9160%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa677…7d76backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-75.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes31c200$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.721,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8d78…6929backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23ea…fbf2backed Yes9c179.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-80.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc98f…4e28backed Yes7c179.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c172.97$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4648414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d6d…6266backed Yes7c172.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1df…d544backed Yes6c170.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b05…a5c3backed Yes7c168.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bce…b131backed Yes9c166.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f44…9e3ebacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4be…2424backed No47c113.68$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4406…63ffbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8796…8565backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2380%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes15c76.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2413740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb8e…a390backed No69c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b7b…19f1backed No74c45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.751070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9303…9eb7backed Yes57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.