MLB · resolved market
Will the Dodgers beat the Padres?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22f5ab0d1dbcd086c7866eaf046325e87bcf4367c335d2270a236fdee5673ef5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dodgersof Dodgers, Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Dodgers | 58c | 34,061$19,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,324.65 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…c324backed Padres | 42c | 23,810$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Padres | 39c | 6,100$2,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Padres | 7c | 4,763$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.28 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Padres | 42c | 3,028$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.76 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Padres | 15c | 2,749$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.39 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Padres | 42c | 2,364$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Dodgers | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Padres | 39c | 2,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…e748backed Padres | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Dodgers | 56c | 1,579$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.93 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8352…d51abacked Padres | 42c | 1,537$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x962c…f969backed Dodgers | 58c | 1,498$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0286…c374backed Padres | 34c | 1,453$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Dodgers | 59c | 1,346$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.76 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked Dodgers | 76c | 1,318$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Padres | 29c | 1,006$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.73 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Padres | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Padres | 6c | 960$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Padres | 32c | 855.74$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f3…1335backed Dodgers | 68c | 855.74$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…bc32backed Padres | 43c | 698.46$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.34 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…d7fcbacked Dodgers | 57c | 698$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb59b…a8e0backed Dodgers | 59c | 586.25$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.36 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Padres | 44c | 570$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…9956backed Dodgers | 59c | 489.42$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked Dodgers | 58c | 472$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.24 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…a6abbacked Padres | 42c | 472$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.24 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…979cbacked Padres | 8c | 440$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Dodgers | 66c | 435.07$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.64 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd028…75f5backed Dodgers | 58c | 327.59$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200a…d498backed Padres | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Dodgers | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 133 | 54.9%73 W · 60 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Padres | 43c | 249.96$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.48 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Dodgers | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Dodgers | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x487f…30babacked Dodgers | 58c | 172$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…7e54backed Padres | 42c | 172$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…3f9ebacked Dodgers | 60c | 166.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Padres | 41c | 166.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…4bbebacked Dodgers | 75c | 157.75$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Padres | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Dodgers | 59c | 140$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Dodgers | 57c | 111$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Dodgers | 59c | 108.64$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Dodgers | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Padres | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Padres | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Padres | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…db84backed Dodgers | 77c | 92.01$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +165.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…ea13backed Dodgers | 58c | 86.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0e…433dbacked Dodgers | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Dodgers | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2087…78a4backed Padres | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…243fbacked Padres | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae25…bc16backed Padres | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Padres | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Dodgers | 59c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391b…6857backed Padres | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Dodgers | 56c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Dodgers | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…3eacbacked Padres | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Padres | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 457 | 32.2%147 W · 310 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ec…b8b7backed Padres | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Dodgers | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed Dodgers | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Dodgers | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Dodgers beat the Padres?this page
- Will the Dodgers and Padres combine for 8 or more runs?Under won
- Will there be at least 1 run scored in the first inning?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.