MLB · resolved market
Will there be at least 1 run scored in the first inning?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x434380ab98c532bb5cd763454c40db19bff1c95c914c9b9da638ea32c67ef94e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 50c | 2,222$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.95 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 50c | 2,002$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 43c | 1,022$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.49 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed No | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 46c | 74.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…243fbacked No | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 50c | 50.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…3f9ebacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…db84backed No | 53c | 40.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +165.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1 run scored in the first inning?this page
- Will the Dodgers and Padres combine for 8 or more runs?Under won
- Will the Dodgers beat the Padres?Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.