MLB · resolved market
Will the Dodgers and Padres combine for 8 or more runs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cdaee8f29d7d70805a5137b936f2c70254a7982bca56b6ab958e8c8de9c67e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Under | 44c | 1,101$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.61 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x675b…822abacked Over | 56c | 625$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Over | 56c | 401.79$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…db84backed Under | 17c | 75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +165.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 44c | 59.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Over | 52c | 48.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…3f9ebacked Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Under | 46c | 46.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Over | 55c | 44.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…51e9backed Over | 65c | 27.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Over | 56c | 25.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Dodgers and Padres combine for 8 or more runs?this page
- Will the Dodgers beat the Padres?Dodgers won
- Will there be at least 1 run scored in the first inning?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.