NFL · resolved market
Will the Bengals beat the Browns by 6 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf6ecbeab0178ac984b58553b1041db4a93e4ebdd6581196259fdf5eb3423295
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bengalsof Bengals, Browns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Browns | 49c | 2,092$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.11 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Bengals | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Bengals | 52c | 400$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Bengals | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Browns | 50c | 346.48$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.24 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…2081backed Bengals | 50c | 346.48$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.24 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Bengals | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Bengals | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Bengals | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Browns | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Bengals | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Bengals | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Browns | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Bengals | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bengals beat the Browns by 6 or more points?this page
- Will the Packers beat the Texans by 3 or more points?Texans won
- Will the 49ers beat the Chiefs by 2 or more points?Chiefs won
- Will the Bills beat the Titans by 10 or more points?Bills won
- Will the Colts beat the Dolphins by 3 or more points?Colts won
- Will the Commanders beat the Panthers by 9 or more points?Commanders won
- Will the Eagles beat the Giants by 4 or more points?Eagles won
- Will the Falcons beat the Seahawks by 3 or more points?Seahawks won
- Will the Jaguars beat the Patriots by 6 or more points?Jaguars won
- Will the Jets beat the Steelers by 2 or more points?Steelers won
- Will the Vikings beat the Lions by 2 or more points?Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.