College Football · resolved market
Arizona vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 51.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38f32bbdd29360a8bf24ddc7676c774efe8713c421f3a2f770e6d3e0dc4ebf3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 5,375$2,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,128.58 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 5,170$2,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,913.33 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 59c | 1,970$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.78 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 157 | 34.4%54 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Under | 62c | 737.6$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.29 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 589.1$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.14 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Over | 53c | 518.87$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Over | 52c | 499.98$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 44c | 409.09$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.09 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 44c | 354.77$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.78 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 38c | 291.8$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.92 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Over | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -7.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 220$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 45c | 219.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.58 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 55c | 127.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 71c | 90$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 42c | 45.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Over | 48c | 42.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…05c8backed Under | 47c | 24.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 51.5this page
- Arizona vs. SMU MustangsSMU Mustangs won
- Arizona vs. SMU Mustangs: 1H MoneylineSMU Mustangs won
- Arizona vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 54.5Under won
- Arizona vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 55.5Under won
- O/U 52.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona (-1.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: Arizona (-2.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: Arizona (-3.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: Arizona (-3.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-1.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-2.5)SMU Mustangs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.