College Football · resolved market
Arizona vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 54.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75714c7ea6b67ead4637afefe8969e7de99fe89879cda1d072b6aaae8ffb62e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 52c | 16,469$8,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,563.86 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Under | 48c | 12,549$6,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,525.73 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 47c | 10,898$5,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,775.96 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 7,637$3,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,889.03 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 50c | 7,500$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,750 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 53c | 5,383$2,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,852.99 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 2,816$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 2,320$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.83 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 48c | 2,172$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.42 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…99dcbacked Over | 52c | 1,308$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Under | 49c | 1,211$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.39 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…1eacbacked Under | 51c | 1,137$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e10…b8d4backed Under | 49c | 503.56$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…2bf8backed Under | 49c | 453.17$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.09 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0266…2957backed Over | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…0cfebacked Under | 48c | 324.1$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 281.97$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.22 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Under | 49c | 210.74$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.29 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7969…c2c6backed Over | 43c | 185$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 45c | 162.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…8b5fbacked Over | 52c | 128.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Over | 53c | 120.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…c62fbacked Under | 49c | 119.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…dffcbacked Under | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 46c | 102.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50ba…5435backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…fdcebacked Under | 49c | 73.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Under | 49c | 52.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…700bbacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d67…da45backed Under | 49c | 48.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ac…37bbbacked Under | 49c | 42.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…4c2cbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…9d26backed Over | 53c | 37.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa15a…4e72backed Under | 48c | 31.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Under | 49c | 29.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Under | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Under | 49c | 23.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 51c | 22.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Over | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 54.5this page
- Arizona vs. SMU MustangsSMU Mustangs won
- Arizona vs. SMU Mustangs: 1H MoneylineSMU Mustangs won
- Arizona vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 51.5Under won
- Arizona vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 55.5Under won
- O/U 52.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona (-1.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: Arizona (-2.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: Arizona (-3.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: Arizona (-3.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-1.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-2.5)SMU Mustangs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.