TailMyPicks
Market

NHL · resolved market

Predators vs. Avalanche

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Predatorsof Predators, Avalanche
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$874,372
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,024,094

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $874,372 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 502 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d89…a2febacked Predators28c172,149$48,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123,642.79862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+58.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Predators27c92,447$24,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,611.0167051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Predators70c87,339$61,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,777.041,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Avalanche19c60,000$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,399.9930944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Predators28c56,478$15,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,739.341,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Avalanche72c40,000$28,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,6001,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Avalanche73c37,100$27,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,08313553.3%72 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…749ebacked Avalanche72c32,421$23,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,343.362556%14 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Avalanche65c27,828$18,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,023.631,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Avalanche72c27,222$19,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,499.8421755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Avalanche71c24,500$17,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,39548549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Avalanche72c18,050$12,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,99632251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Avalanche73c15,555$11,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,355.1513363.2%84 W · 49 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Avalanche7c15,325$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.5138748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Avalanche72c13,882$9,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,9955261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Avalanche73c12,956$9,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,4583050%15 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Avalanche66c12,388$8,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,234.721,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Avalanche74c12,203$9,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,03024749.8%123 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Predators72c9,211$6,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,584.9614753.7%79 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Avalanche0c7,755$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.62504.8%12 W · 238 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Avalanche72c7,500$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4001,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Avalanche73c6,326$4,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,609.2926955.8%150 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Predators28c6,185$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,475.0561748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Avalanche44c6,058$2,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,668.931,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Avalanche54c6,043$3,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,288.5433345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Predators28c6,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,32021036.2%76 W · 134 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3eeb…fe8fbacked Avalanche73c5,685$4,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,150.05862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Avalanche70c5,500$3,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,84566951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Avalanche73c5,457$3,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,983.6120147.8%96 W · 105 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Avalanche72c5,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,60027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x60ab…d681backed Avalanche73c4,932$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,60012548%60 W · 65 L-15.6wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-21.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Avalanche70c4,881$3,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,402.671752.9%9 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick67cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Avalanche72c4,594$3,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,307.6811749.6%58 W · 59 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Avalanche36c4,569$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,662.289636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Avalanche46c4,413$2,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,036.92,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Avalanche74c4,268$3,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,169.9557157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Avalanche28c4,176$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.0534538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Avalanche73c4,159$3,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,019.6189249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Avalanche72c4,107$2,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,938.110850.9%55 W · 53 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Avalanche1c4,066$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.167450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Avalanche70c4,016$2,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,811.354148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Avalanche72c4,000$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,88010848.1%52 W · 56 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Avalanche72c4,000$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,88021048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Predators77c3,993$3,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.666157.4%35 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Avalanche71c3,977$2,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,839.82,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Avalanche34c3,872$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.212,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Avalanche70c3,858$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70012552%65 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf83d…367dbacked Avalanche59c3,740$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,224.81457.1%8 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Avalanche52c3,470$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,804.0723047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Avalanche73c3,148$2,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,295.5861953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Avalanche73c3,120$2,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,277.614848%71 W · 77 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf2a…0525backed Avalanche72c3,100$2,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,231.819254.3%50 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Predators28c3,078$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,205.131,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Predators28c3,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,16018547%87 W · 98 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Avalanche19c3,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57026344.5%117 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Avalanche72c3,000$2,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,17097651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f6d…4ad5backed Predators28c3,000$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,174.982147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Predators27c2,904$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.929052.2%47 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Avalanche47c2,887$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,370.2399638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Avalanche72c2,867$2,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,063.9247951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Avalanche19c2,803$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.5111949.6%59 W · 60 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Avalanche72c2,517$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,812.3862249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Avalanche71c2,500$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,77523751.5%122 W · 115 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Avalanche72c2,500$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80030447.4%144 W · 160 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Predators43c2,462$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394.8520951.7%108 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Avalanche73c2,200$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60439047.9%187 W · 203 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d64…738ebacked Predators27c2,181$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,592.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Predators20c2,181$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,742.521,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Avalanche70c2,153$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.11,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x128a…f49ebacked Avalanche69c2,150$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,483.43955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75c3…4d64backed Predators26c2,144$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+41.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Predators28c2,100$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,51238445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Avalanche49c2,098$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.851,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Avalanche73c2,062$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5055453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Avalanche55c2,036$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.081,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Avalanche72c2,023$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Avalanche22c2,014$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.2362951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Avalanche1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Avalanche71c2,000$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42012947.3%61 W · 68 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Avalanche73c2,000$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46025552.5%134 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Avalanche73c2,000$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4602759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e33…1482backed Avalanche45c1,890$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.492850%14 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+37.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Predators28c1,880$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.684953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Predators27c1,800$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.311,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Predators28c1,786$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.7185250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbff1…d32bbacked Avalanche73c1,762$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,286.012254.5%12 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Predators34c1,744$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.936253.2%33 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x674a…ad6cbacked Avalanche72c1,632$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.1190%0 W · 9 L-4.8wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Avalanche74c1,581$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17011953.8%64 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Predators51c1,561$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.0952172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Avalanche71c1,500$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06514945%67 W · 82 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8586…8207backed Predators28c1,500$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+339.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Avalanche6c1,500$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8414012.9%18 W · 122 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Avalanche71c1,500$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.971,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…e4fdbacked Avalanche74c1,476$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.2430%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Avalanche13c1,458$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.7818520.5%38 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Predators47c1,320$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.6238738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f69…23cbbacked Avalanche5c1,300$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6411127%30 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick27cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d6…1582backed Predators26c1,261$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.13450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb10…c547backed Avalanche72c1,258$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.