NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddb937bf261e62108bf3742f8cf73cbb4099ee6acc112f2af63dcd4e4f2aeaa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 1,988$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.36 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 51c | 1,725$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.31 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Over | 48c | 1,590$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.2 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Under | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 996$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.08 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Over | 50c | 882$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 829.47$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.99 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 439.02$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.54 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 52c | 289$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.72 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Over | 54c | 138$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 51c | 121.49$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 47c | 121.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 47c | 76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Under | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked Over | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Over | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 47c | 21.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 51c | 20.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Cavaliers vs. SpursCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 241.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 243.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 244.5Under won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.