NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 243.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbf0b85e52cf59ef0c9935703d7a4f2fbc39a3486d9ae8b122dd5e1b6725e893
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Over | 46c | 3,778$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,737.66 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 54c | 2,248$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.39 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 2,217$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 51c | 1,229$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 54c | 993$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.78 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0993…f5acbacked Over | 49c | 969.39$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 50c | 870$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 870$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 49c | 700$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 644.31$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.71 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be6…4ff5backed Under | 51c | 637.25$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff8…aa3abacked Under | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 45c | 142.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Under | 54c | 134.26$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 111.04$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 51c | 98.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…47a4backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…8fa1backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 49c | 20.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 243.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Cavaliers vs. SpursCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 241.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 244.5Under won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.