NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aaa489c89ac807edaca34d62de9f0b65b898d50b33b3e3bda193239e8db284f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Spurs, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc675…2ff3backed Spurs | 47c | 10,609$4,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,986.23 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cavaliers | 53c | 5,047$2,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,368.14 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Spurs | 47c | 3,100$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…0262backed Cavaliers | 51c | 2,900$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Spurs | 48c | 2,629$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.35 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 2,300$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 1,780$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.99 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers | 56c | 1,770$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.84 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 1,598$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.04 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Cavaliers | 51c | 1,547$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.64 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 46c | 1,139$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.55 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Spurs | 53c | 1,050$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Spurs | 59c | 1,015$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.85 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Cavaliers | 55c | 1,011$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.95 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 56c | 1,000$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 46c | 893.59$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Cavaliers | 53c | 800$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 598$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.06 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 562.62$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.43 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cavaliers | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Cavaliers | 52c | 496.23$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.23 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Spurs | 47c | 385.22$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.05 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…c803backed Cavaliers | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Cavaliers | 54c | 285.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Spurs | 49c | 196.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Spurs | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 182 | 40.7%74 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Cavaliers | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cavaliers | 50c | 141$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Spurs | 45c | 110.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Spurs | 45c | 106$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Spurs | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Spurs | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Spurs | 47c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Spurs | 49c | 67.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Cavaliers | 55c | 59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Spurs | 56c | 53.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 47.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Spurs | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cavaliers | 53c | 44.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Spurs | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb8…85b9backed Spurs | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Cavaliers | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Spurs | 48c | 30.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…04a9backed Cavaliers | 56c | 21.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Cavaliers | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Cavaliers vs. SpursCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 241.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 243.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 244.5Under won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.