NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ceeb8731ab6bd56d32fc4049ff7b0cc821308554817b3f703474e31461a349d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Spurs, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Spurs | 53c | 4,500$2,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 49c | 3,055$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,557.8 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Cavaliers | 47c | 2,543$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.67 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Spurs | 51c | 2,441$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.41 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29a…8776backed Spurs | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2052backed Cavaliers | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81c2…5ca2backed Spurs | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb340…58c9backed Spurs | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…30c8backed Cavaliers | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…00f6backed Cavaliers | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Cavaliers | 47c | 1,927$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.37 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 50c | 1,272$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4f…f290backed Spurs | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Spurs | 53c | 354.72$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Spurs | 51c | 260.79$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…74cfbacked Spurs | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…38cbbacked Spurs | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cavaliers | 48c | 148.46$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Spurs | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 50c | 99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Spurs | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…14d9backed Spurs | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 63.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Spurs | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Spurs | 52c | 23.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Cavaliers | 47c | 22.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Cavaliers vs. SpursCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 241.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 243.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 244.5Under won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.