Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x564342c59d052532d3b0a00a2255268760101eee57692e64ed2c212d72c555bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 11,432$3,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,172.82 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Under | 72c | 4,399$3,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.59 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed Under | 72c | 2,486$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 73c | 2,055$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.79 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 1,960$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.26 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Under | 74c | 1,250$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.17 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Under | 78c | 1,210$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.47 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 27c | 1,111$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 72c | 932.56$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.86 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Over | 26c | 799.76$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.18 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…dd0ebacked Under | 75c | 669.76$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.76 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Under | 78c | 410.94$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Under | 71c | 400.95$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.28 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 108 | 74.1%80 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 12c | 296.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 71c | 237.21$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 215 | 48.8%105 W · 110 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 73c | 237$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 71c | 235.62$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 391 | 56%219 W · 172 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 292 | 59.2%173 W · 119 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8f…386cbacked Under | 74c | 194.59$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b7…8b0cbacked Over | 11c | 170.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 28c | 159.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 76c | 158.6$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 72c | 138$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 26c | 124$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 11c | 115.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 72c | 101$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…6f5bbacked Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 27c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Under | 74c | 58.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Under | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 140 | 49.3%69 W · 71 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Over | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 29c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 28c | 43.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Over | 28c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Over | 29c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…0814backed Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…5896backed Under | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Under | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.