Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea0c87cc7c38ad4d8e0e11c7c98f43130a5ccbfbef4542b2fb7fa5350ed560b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 16c | 4,976$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.08 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbf…5a09backed Under | 1c | 3,227$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…382dbacked Under | 28c | 2,553$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.76 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f4…c918backed Under | 32c | 1,549$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 6c | 1,052$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +12.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +125%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 12c | 807.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 21c | 742.67$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.16 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c3…dedebacked Under | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 14c | 551.61$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 80c | 383.17$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 11c | 344.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Under | 15c | 325$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…63febacked Over | 80c | 237.96$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 13c | 218$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 432 | 41.9%181 W · 251 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +5.8wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…d941backed Over | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 18c | 164.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 209 | 31.6%66 W · 143 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…7031backed Over | 70c | 143.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 13c | 131.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 15c | 127.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 13c | 113.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…fc90backed Under | 15c | 101.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b7…8b0cbacked Under | 21c | 85.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 80c | 67.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…e4bdbacked Under | 40c | 63.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +47%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e7…6031backed Under | 16c | 62.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…161cbacked Over | 80c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 79c | 47.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…aa9abacked Under | 24c | 42.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…d3b3backed Over | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 70c | 28.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 75c | 16.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.