Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfb595a8f136629ea231c2c3bd1c8206ab7e6eb9d7937958e3e0f6bb1f16551c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 41c | 2,655$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.14 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…821fbacked Yes | 56c | 2,233$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.57 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 15c | 1,588$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.2 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +12.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +125%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 65c | 1,202$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.98 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 38c | 846.09$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.25 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…79a0backed Yes | 63c | 787.9$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 44c | 535.87$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.53 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 52c | 478.49$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.99 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 38c | 423$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.84 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed No | 43c | 387.84$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.22 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cd…f7c3backed Yes | 63c | 387.45$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Yes | 62c | 320.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.27 | 129 | 68.2%88 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 37c | 305.87$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.31 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 15c | 300.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a50…6c6bbacked No | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Yes | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 152 | 63.2%96 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0039…046ebacked No | 53c | 220.75$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 61c | 218.41$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 35c | 211.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 35c | 205.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 290 | 41.7%121 W · 169 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…42fbbacked No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…e4bdbacked No | 41c | 198.21$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +47%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…102cbacked Yes | 53c | 189.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Yes | 63c | 145$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Yes | 63c | 145$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Yes | 61c | 141.91$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…dc70backed Yes | 64c | 140.63$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 47c | 138.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…40b9backed Yes | 61c | 129.26$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18b…51b9backed Yes | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Yes | 63c | 111$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed No | 38c | 103.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 216 | 48.6%105 W · 111 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…1f67backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c1…be25backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5650…4cd8backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 38c | 85.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed No | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 357 | 43.1%154 W · 203 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 40c | 80.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 237 | 41.8%99 W · 138 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Yes | 63c | 79.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Yes | 63c | 63.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Yes | 51c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…7952backed No | 50c | 58.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…99d2backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 49c | 47.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ed…ef48backed Yes | 51c | 47.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked No | 37c | 47.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 232 | 20.7%48 W · 184 L | -12.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e9…ce44backed No | 38c | 45.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked No | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 61c | 43.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed No | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…2d79backed Yes | 50c | 39.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked No | 37c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Yes | 65c | 37.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e7…6031backed No | 45c | 34.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed No | 36c | 34.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | +13.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed No | 47c | 31.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e16…41f8backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d1…a358backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d5…b8ddbacked Yes | 64c | 28.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed No | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed No | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 59c | 27.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf94…17aebacked Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…74efbacked Yes | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed No | 66c | 25.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed No | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…ceeabacked Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa5…9cf3backed Yes | 63c | 23.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 45c | 23.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 170 | 47.6%81 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e3…0ca1backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.