NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Commanders
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba3b6c254c1099a2e1d11ac0801b17afe440d5f3dc4f2dd5b4a47bccf627991b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Commandersof Bears, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $244,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $242,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37ea…9b3ebacked Bears | 41c | 30,991$12,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,606.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…c487backed Commanders | 55c | 30,850$16,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,952.84 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -8.7wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Commanders | 58c | 15,276$8,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,359.63 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…a0fabacked Commanders | 51c | 14,422$7,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,068.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Bears | 44c | 13,081$5,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,789.59 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Bears | 55c | 9,390$5,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,198.32 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Commanders | 52c | 7,129$3,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,421.94 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Commanders | 59c | 6,355$3,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,607.93 | 144 | 57.6%83 W · 61 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed Bears | 32c | 6,174$1,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,987.42 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Bears | 47c | 6,073$2,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,839.65 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…a608backed Bears | 47c | 6,000$2,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,820 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Bears | 35c | 5,052$1,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.81 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Bears | 50c | 5,000$2,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,512.69 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…8293backed Bears | 49c | 4,775$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,339.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Commanders | 18c | 4,486$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,661.51 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Bears | 57c | 3,725$2,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,123.12 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c4…a48bbacked Bears | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Commanders | 43c | 2,552$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.57 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94dc…c779backed Commanders | 54c | 2,401$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.87 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…8371backed Bears | 48c | 2,230$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.55 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Bears | 35c | 2,127$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…dce5backed Bears | 54c | 2,087$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.46 | 273 | 39.2%107 W · 166 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…05f6backed Bears | 50c | 2,051$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.55 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…36d4backed Commanders | 51c | 2,041$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.99 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Bears | 31c | 1,785$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.82 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Bears | 40c | 1,728$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.11 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fd…7e92backed Commanders | 46c | 1,641$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b94…ce9dbacked Bears | 44c | 1,629$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Bears | 24c | 1,602$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.6 | 118 | 21.2%25 W · 93 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Commanders | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.99 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Bears | 60c | 1,475$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.79 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400f…e712backed Bears | 45c | 1,333$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…b428backed Bears | 49c | 1,313$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Commanders | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Bears | 46c | 1,144$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.57 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Bears | 31c | 1,132$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.2 | 162 | 59.9%97 W · 65 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Bears | 41c | 1,050$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.49 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…cdbebacked Bears | 22c | 1,011$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.88 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fa…a8c3backed Commanders | 69c | 1,011$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Commanders | 47c | 1,001$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.51 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…681abacked Commanders | 75c | 1,000$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8229…dfbfbacked Bears | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Commanders | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Bears | 53c | 999.98$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.99 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Commanders | 51c | 999.29$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.65 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…5eacbacked Bears | 59c | 840.68$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.74 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Commanders | 16c | 649.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.12 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Commanders | 29c | 638.67$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.48 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa3…f82dbacked Bears | 37c | 628.79$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.83 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…8669backed Commanders | 52c | 599.98$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4404…c5b7backed Commanders | 43c | 581.4$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Commanders | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…1e3dbacked Commanders | 50c | 543.21$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.61 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Bears | 37c | 512.92$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.78 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Commanders | 54c | 508.67$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.87 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1729…e0efbacked Bears | 46c | 502.52$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Commanders | 71c | 473.66$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.53 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc0…8c5ebacked Commanders | 63c | 472.58$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Bears | 55c | 463.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.19 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Bears | 26c | 450$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed Bears | 54c | 444$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.76 | 198 | 64.6%128 W · 70 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Bears | 46c | 442.64$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.93 | 233 | 51.9%121 W · 112 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Bears | 59c | 430$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.7 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Bears | 47c | 424.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.75 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…efb8backed Commanders | 64c | 423.26$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.85 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…36b3backed Commanders | 50c | 420$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae3…1540backed Commanders | 70c | 406$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Bears | 47c | 405.58$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.73 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…5801backed Commanders | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +9.6wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…4908backed Commanders | 50c | 400.85$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceea…8c07backed Bears | 52c | 399.99$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Commanders | 51c | 385.27$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.13 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…611dbacked Commanders | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Commanders | 20c | 384.48$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.3 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Bears | 22c | 384.06$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b6…4eddbacked Commanders | 54c | 357.18$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.54 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaf…7affbacked Bears | 33c | 350$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…79ebbacked Bears | 29c | 344.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed Commanders | 42c | 335.04$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.32 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebf…05babacked Commanders | 43c | 328.12$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed Commanders | 26c | 277.87$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.82 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…07c3backed Bears | 50c | 270$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…f457backed Bears | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Commanders | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Commanders | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe799…3d4dbacked Bears | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…334bbacked Commanders | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c32…09dfbacked Commanders | 46c | 219.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.56 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ed…d13dbacked Bears | 28c | 213.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Commanders | 47c | 209.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…971fbacked Bears | 28c | 206$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…24e6backed Commanders | 41c | 200.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.59 | 168 | 45.8%77 W · 91 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Commanders | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4f…e5dbbacked Bears | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…9070backed Commanders | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Commanders | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…787bbacked Commanders | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd7…c1f3backed Commanders | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Commanders | 53c | 199.08$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.57 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Commanders | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.