Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Most Wanted (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa84e89700d3d22df8ff840ce9ac7ac9ed4fcbb4a8d4dec9ac7479de326d6203f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Spirit Academy, Most Wanted
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d82…1b86backed Most Wanted | 16c | 3,492$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Most Wanted | 66c | 1,338$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.25 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Spirit Academy | 31c | 1,272$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.98 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Spirit Academy | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Most Wanted | 60c | 1,200$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…942bbacked Most Wanted | 60c | 1,161$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.93 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Most Wanted | 70c | 1,043$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.01 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Most Wanted | 65c | 1,013$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.71 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Most Wanted | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Spirit Academy | 30c | 906.01$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.18 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Most Wanted | 72c | 648.22$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.27 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Spirit Academy | 38c | 639.78$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.66 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Most Wanted | 67c | 599.83$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…9d85backed Spirit Academy | 40c | 545.58$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Most Wanted | 60c | 545.58$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.35 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Spirit Academy | 59c | 516.81$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.26 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed Spirit Academy | 39c | 484.38$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.35 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Spirit Academy | 42c | 468.73$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.04 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Most Wanted | 72c | 453.39$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…e02abacked Most Wanted | 49c | 445.48$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Spirit Academy | 28c | 356.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.04 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Spirit Academy | 40c | 286.19$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.19 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed Spirit Academy | 39c | 255.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.43 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Spirit Academy | 39c | 253.87$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.86 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…2874backed Spirit Academy | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Spirit Academy | 43c | 230.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.12 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Most Wanted | 49c | 219.97$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.78 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…029ebacked Spirit Academy | 55c | 199.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.69 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Spirit Academy | 39c | 187.18$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.18 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f02…8826backed Spirit Academy | 21c | 180$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.87 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.44per pick | 42cpaid | +135.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…53d7backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 150.21$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Spirit Academy | 43c | 147.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f56…f93cbacked Spirit Academy | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…b94cbacked Spirit Academy | 78c | 127.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…5379backed Spirit Academy | 41c | 118.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.95 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b29…f712backed Most Wanted | 19c | 105.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +198.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Most Wanted | 58c | 100.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…528fbacked Spirit Academy | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…a571backed Spirit Academy | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Spirit Academy | 44c | 91.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Spirit Academy | 39c | 91.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…59bdbacked Most Wanted | 63c | 81.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Spirit Academy | 41c | 65.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Spirit Academy | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…e4dabacked Most Wanted | 23c | 52.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3f…3badbacked Most Wanted | 49c | 51.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Spirit Academy | 26c | 50.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…34f7backed Spirit Academy | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd6…605abacked Spirit Academy | 38c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…8fcebacked Spirit Academy | 76c | 46.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Most Wanted | 66c | 41.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Spirit Academy | 39c | 41.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Spirit Academy | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Spirit Academy | 28c | 36.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…9e83backed Most Wanted | 41c | 34.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…03b9backed Spirit Academy | 45c | 33.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…bb7fbacked Most Wanted | 65c | 31.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Spirit Academy | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…88e5backed Most Wanted | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Most Wanted (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Most Wanted - Game 1 WinnerMost Wanted won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Most Wanted - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.