TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: yache123 vs Veroja - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Verojaof yache123, Veroja
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,354
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,828

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,354 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6bea…5d50backed Veroja56c2,081$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.7347748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed yache12338c1,300$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.2746535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked yache12324c1,172$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.7912050.8%61 W · 59 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x128a…f49ebacked Veroja76c1,129$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.9540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-46.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked yache12341c700.02$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.8173841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01a…bf29backed yache12347c686.18$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.475962.7%37 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9be…8b35backed Veroja50c301.01$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.018349.4%41 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed yache12350c236.91$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.471450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee33…9a55backed Veroja59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Veroja47c74.11$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9952243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6906…67ecbacked Veroja55c55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.75560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7929…7415backed yache12324c47.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd11…79a5backed yache12349c40.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202171.4%15 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed yache12379c39.18$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9545061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca4…923dbacked yache12355c36.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Veroja51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.734063.2%215 W · 125 L+38.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Veroja56c25.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+33.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.