Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: yache123 vs Veroja - Game 3 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa65f407eac4f4ad83bec97f0b74b975df001a3b9541024a2a0babdc2a240cf6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Verojaof yache123, Veroja
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Veroja | 56c | 2,081$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.73 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed yache123 | 38c | 1,300$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.27 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked yache123 | 24c | 1,172$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.79 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Veroja | 76c | 1,129$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked yache123 | 41c | 700.02$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.81 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01a…bf29backed yache123 | 47c | 686.18$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.47 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed Veroja | 50c | 301.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.01 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed yache123 | 50c | 236.91$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.47 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee33…9a55backed Veroja | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Veroja | 47c | 74.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…67ecbacked Veroja | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7929…7415backed yache123 | 24c | 47.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…79a5backed yache123 | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed yache123 | 79c | 39.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked yache123 | 55c | 36.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Veroja | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Veroja | 56c | 25.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: yache123 vs Veroja - Game 3 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: yache123 vs Veroja (BO5)Veroja won
- Dota 2: yache123 vs Veroja - Game 1 Winneryache123 won
- Dota 2: yache123 vs Veroja - Game 2 WinnerVeroja won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.