Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Kalmychata vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf04256d5166bcf070e7b6657e159cdd43aa8be6c86dd1abe4177f13affcf9503
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kalmychataof Kalmychata, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed VP.Prodigy | 36c | 1,570$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.2 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Kalmychata | 64c | 1,570$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.2 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed VP.Prodigy | 2c | 694.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed VP.Prodigy | 33c | 499.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Kalmychata | 65c | 395.62$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.37 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked VP.Prodigy | 44c | 219.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed VP.Prodigy | 39c | 163.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked VP.Prodigy | 50c | 162.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked VP.Prodigy | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Kalmychata | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a03…02a6backed VP.Prodigy | 44c | 91.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb96…934fbacked VP.Prodigy | 29c | 86.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed VP.Prodigy | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Kalmychata | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Kalmychata | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Kalmychata | 54c | 48.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Kalmychata | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…697abacked Kalmychata | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Kalmychata | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…59bdbacked Kalmychata | 49c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…03b9backed Kalmychata | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs VP.Prodigy (BO3)Kalmychata won
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerKalmychata won
- VP.Prodigy to win 0 games?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.