College Football · resolved market
Will Utah beat Arizona State?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9936e1f1f0869c725f007a5f629fde3cc454cb7e1c6766b4095635eb7407bcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ASUof Utah, ASU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed ASU | 58c | 6,579$3,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,758.73 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Utah | 46c | 3,315$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.11 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Utah | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed ASU | 56c | 2,262$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Utah | 28c | 1,850$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked ASU | 56c | 1,376$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.4 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Utah | 50c | 1,141$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.01 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed ASU | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.1 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Utah | 66c | 990$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.4 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked ASU | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Utah | 63c | 967.88$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.45 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x694c…919dbacked ASU | 61c | 883.26$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked ASU | 31c | 802.83$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.55 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked ASU | 56c | 500.31$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.26 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed ASU | 32c | 383.82$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Utah | 67c | 372.04$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -6.0wins | -0.33per pick | 61cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x675b…822abacked Utah | 68c | 367.65$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Utah | 41c | 315$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.17 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed ASU | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c36…52b9backed Utah | 43c | 241.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Utah | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…4bbebacked ASU | 66c | 152.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…ea13backed Utah | 63c | 148$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…513ebacked Utah | 69c | 135.1$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.22 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…e38abacked ASU | 36c | 125$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1823…b0fcbacked Utah | 47c | 106.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Utah | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed ASU | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…83dcbacked ASU | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22e…c0aebacked ASU | 51c | 70.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa45…0eb0backed ASU | 34c | 61.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Utah | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Utah | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Utah | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed Utah | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed ASU | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked ASU | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ec…b8b7backed ASU | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Utah | 67c | 25.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked ASU | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d96…6831backed Utah | 69c | 15.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Utah beat Arizona State?this page
- Will Utah beat Arizona State by 6 or more points?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.