Premier League · resolved market
Will Birmingham City FC vs. Derby County FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x294fa16071d5a34336db79d11b184a9c8257721fe8db029a2b94cae94c61c478
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 39c | 7,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,250 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 27c | 6,745$1,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.43 | 4,874 | 41.5%2,021 W · 2,853 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 80c | 2,568$2,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.62 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Yes | 27c | 2,506$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,829.5 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 61c | 1,679$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.72 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 20c | 1,563$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.29 | 1,176 | 57.4%675 W · 501 L | +40.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Yes | 68c | 944.07$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.12 | 219 | 65.3%143 W · 76 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 56c | 940.48$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.71 | 6,217 | 45.6%2,834 W · 3,383 L | -33.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 73c | 873$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.29 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Yes | 34c | 726$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.16 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Yes | 34c | 707.26$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.79 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 28c | 700$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 70c | 600$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.14 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 46c | 544.78$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.17 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 33c | 485.58$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.23 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 72c | 451$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.72 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 37c | 408.38$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.38 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked Yes | 33c | 279.65$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.82 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…d644backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 31c | 231.27$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed No | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 72c | 208.3$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 830 | 63%523 W · 307 L | +113.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 49c | 206$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 432 | 41.9%181 W · 251 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 203 | 26.6%54 W · 149 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…4f34backed Yes | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7e…339abacked Yes | 63c | 148$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…e727backed Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 13c | 128.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 307 | 39.4%121 W · 186 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 34c | 114.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 290 | 41.7%121 W · 169 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Yes | 27c | 113$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 72c | 106.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f7…919bbacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…16c9backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Yes | 27c | 93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 71c | 91.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 291 | 58.4%170 W · 121 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…c6dabacked No | 28c | 91.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…a45cbacked Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed No | 73c | 85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…e37abacked Yes | 63c | 79.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes | 29c | 74.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…9496backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 33c | 69.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 297 | 35.4%105 W · 192 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed No | 47c | 67.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf987…6ea7backed No | 20c | 52.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed No | 73c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…fe2abacked Yes | 43c | 35.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 71c | 33.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 162 | 38.3%62 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…30c4backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Yes | 31c | 31.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed No | 73c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Yes | 53c | 19.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…e40bbacked Yes | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b7…64ccbacked No | 74c | 15.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Birmingham City FC vs. Derby County FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Birmingham City FC win on 2025-12-26?No won
- Will Derby County FC win on 2025-12-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.