Australian A League · resolved market
Will Adelaide United FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8e943c798d376e48454049f49547b6ddcaeea8f5c2da549ec73817337696e0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 26c | 11,899$3,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,092.82 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 74c | 8,318$6,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.87 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 65c | 3,563$2,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.38 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 37c | 1,448$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.33 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed Yes | 75c | 1,337$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,302$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Yes | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 61c | 1,078$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Yes | 64c | 985.78$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 23c | 921.29$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.42 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 860.52$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.73 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 637.53$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.24 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0801…35cbbacked No | 40c | 549.47$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 38c | 456.5$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.47 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f79…be19backed Yes | 25c | 445.7$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 75c | 318$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 49c | 302.99$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.57 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 74c | 258.01$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 46c | 242.69$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.57 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd180…aa0cbacked No | 75c | 207.25$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3678…f584backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Yes | 42c | 188.1$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…eca0backed Yes | 29c | 155.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9180…3ff1backed No | 75c | 143$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…cf4fbacked Yes | 25c | 130$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Yes | 58c | 122.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 64c | 108.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 75c | 106$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b4…dbf0backed Yes | 79c | 99.38$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 58c | 93.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 42c | 87.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed No | 13c | 79.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedc…8bcabacked Yes | 33c | 72.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2a…37f4backed No | 26c | 69.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 50c | 68.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 58c | 33.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked No | 65c | 30.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…cce7backed Yes | 45c | 29.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…9779backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…7295backed Yes | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 74c | 13.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adelaide United FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2025-12-27?Yes won
- Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.