TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Jaguars vs. Bears

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bearsof Jaguars, Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$221,138
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$226,246

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,138 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 321 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6761…a94fbacked Jaguars45c54,983$24,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,485.7512051.7%62 W · 58 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Bears49c21,549$10,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,007.6825137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Jaguars49c11,166$5,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,521.3836246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Bears59c10,304$6,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,269.9622638.9%88 W · 138 L-1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Bears51c6,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,94010334%35 W · 68 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Jaguars51c5,558$2,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,855.335433.3%18 W · 36 L-7.6wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked Bears50c5,296$2,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,659.6413751.8%71 W · 66 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6356…1885backed Bears50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,500.036350.8%32 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00e2…6b9ebacked Jaguars50c4,799$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.58450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Bears51c4,080$2,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,018.419864.6%128 W · 70 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Bears50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00012843.8%56 W · 72 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f47…af93backed Jaguars49c3,940$1,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,930.375846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Jaguars50c3,200$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60034349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff0…46e3backed Jaguars51c2,990$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.0514457.6%83 W · 61 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed Bears53c2,793$1,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.682871.4%20 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b3f…e089backed Jaguars51c2,679$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.7420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e1…921ebacked Bears72c2,620$1,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.763063.3%19 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb866…36d4backed Jaguars51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2753336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8884…b428backed Bears45c2,425$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.932152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef79…96dcbacked Bears52c2,028$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.33666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+25%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ca8…0a57backed Bears52c1,819$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8823…4c34backed Jaguars52c1,800$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9362050%10 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1856…1964backed Bears47c1,785$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.883860.5%23 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+36%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed Bears80c1,650$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.9318645.7%85 W · 101 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Bears48c1,558$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.6444246.8%207 W · 235 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe41a…a42dbacked Jaguars47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.945036%18 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f06…a1e8backed Jaguars48c1,465$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Jaguars20c1,367$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.4421713.8%30 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-50.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfae5…2306backed Bears52c1,188$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f1d…0850backed Jaguars49c1,188$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.17475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x292a…8c35backed Bears54c1,096$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf52f…2233backed Bears52c1,089$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Bears49c1,049$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.9923937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Bears55c1,000$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.4730446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x479c…bcbcbacked Bears48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5201376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+38.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc4ef…974cbacked Bears50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5004577.8%35 W · 10 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+19%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Bears49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51033047.9%158 W · 172 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ce…a6abbacked Jaguars52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-62.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf936…f310backed Jaguars7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x128a…f49ebacked Bears54c1,000$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4652955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0deb…2549backed Bears51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4902842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d99…04f3backed Bears50c1,000$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5051040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Bears54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46011346.9%53 W · 60 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ca…9f7abacked Jaguars54c984.24$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd35d…7089backed Bears51c982.71$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.614452.8%76 W · 68 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd58c…3b04backed Bears49c930.61$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.61944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e9…2758backed Bears51c920.71$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.156071.7%43 W · 17 L+11.4wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+42.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5b6a…8863backed Jaguars53c897.17$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Jaguars43c820.53$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.4713040%52 W · 78 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Jaguars21c818.82$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5532438%123 W · 201 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce5b…655fbacked Bears54c766.67$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.673100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+82.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a1b…7b38backed Bears48c764.33$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.45757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+35.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc229…b12fbacked Bears52c740.61$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.49887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick62cpaid+46.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4135…ece5backed Jaguars16c729.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-62.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fbb…2ebdbacked Jaguars50c692$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x828d…e57fbacked Bears52c684.44$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.44560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb456…f437backed Jaguars49c680.94$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x438a…62e5backed Jaguars49c624.95$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.231625%4 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb49…97a0backed Jaguars48c547.92$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2634339.5%17 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04a…824ebacked Jaguars53c530$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.94124.4%10 W · 31 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-48.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8cd…238dbacked Bears51c518.92$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.272564%16 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Bears36c500$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32016832.1%54 W · 114 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f6…8afbbacked Bears51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2451241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f7d…4feabacked Jaguars53c468.09$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.094656.5%26 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ab…d141backed Bears49c438.78$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7d6…6f49backed Jaguars53c437.74$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40d5…acd1backed Bears48c425.85$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.0123351.9%121 W · 112 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4083…965cbacked Jaguars52c425.35$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…4ed0backed Jaguars49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cb8…43f6backed Bears53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x541e…e793backed Jaguars46c400$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1843259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb65d…3757backed Bears56c400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1764146.3%19 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33b1…6b93backed Jaguars48c397.92$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19150%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb07f…8b4abacked Bears52c378.59$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x487f…30babacked Jaguars52c340$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.81163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf64…7e54backed Bears48c340$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.81233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Bears49c327.62$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.0913942.4%59 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ee…22abbacked Bears52c325.12$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d71…351cbacked Jaguars46c323.91$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceea…8c07backed Jaguars43c318.44$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.619645.8%44 W · 52 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf866…75dcbacked Bears51c313.73$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.73560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Bears48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.521454.7%117 W · 97 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc498…24e3backed Jaguars49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xddfd…6bbabacked Bears54c304.5$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d45…6b60backed Jaguars48c304.17$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e91…b801backed Jaguars50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505034%17 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x089b…2193backed Bears50c293.78$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.89837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93d0…0c2ebacked Bears55c289.99$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.4613255.3%73 W · 59 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf318…0cdcbacked Bears52c289.78$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.09966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fd…b730backed Bears52c285.29$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb508…cb11backed Bears52c284.19$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Jaguars25c267.41$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.152828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614b…797fbacked Jaguars35c259.62$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e2…25f7backed Jaguars57c250$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.513348.1%64 W · 69 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb86d…31c5backed Jaguars48c250$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9693…07c3backed Bears56c244.64$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.6411949.6%59 W · 60 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c83…865bbacked Bears52c244.61$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79a1…5801backed Bears41c243.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.5510768.2%73 W · 34 L+9.6wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3cd…5da7backed Bears52c235.2$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.9250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe51d…429cbacked Bears52c232.69$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.69757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.