Australian A League · resolved market
Auckland FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5152f3dad905a65ca725910e8cff12735fa1ca3ddbbc9235cfe4dbf90f76848a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Under | 71c | 5,009$3,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.4 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 28c | 2,747$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.91 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 1,260$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.97 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Under | 38c | 929.27$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Over | 78c | 512.82$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb461…d1dabacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Under | 53c | 377$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 41c | 331.63$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.97 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 45c | 303$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.35 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Under | 36c | 268.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 73c | 172.62$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…2be7backed Under | 42c | 120.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…3e75backed Under | 76c | 89.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x916d…308abacked Over | 21c | 72.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…79a5backed Under | 43c | 70.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 66.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Over | 29c | 59.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec5…14debacked Over | 72c | 55.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 31c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 62c | 41.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…4404backed Over | 43c | 30.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…01d4backed Over | 43c | 30.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 70c | 21.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Auckland FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Auckland FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Auckland FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.