TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1c0a…01d4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
24
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: College Football, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category College Football at 56 out of 100; worst Australian A League at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-72.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
College Football — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Texas State (-17.5)backed Texas State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+83.2%+$51.8
Spread: Texas State (-14.5)backed Texas State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+64.2%+$6.9
Spread: Texas State (-13.5)backed Texas State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+51.6%+$5.32
Miami vs. Ohio Statebacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+91.9%+$12.46
All 4 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Thunder vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+194.1%+$76.91
Jazz vs. Clippersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$29.99
Nuggets vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$58.92
All 3 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+251.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Florida International Golden Panthersbacked Florida International Golden Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+39.6%+$21.72
California-San Diego Tritons vs. Cal Poly Mustangsbacked Cal Poly Mustangs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+463.5%+$64.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-01-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+100%+$28.23
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+122.2%+$30.79
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+95.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$120.24
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+53.3%+$162.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bruins vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$26.04
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.