Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
California-San Diego Tritons vs. Cal Poly Mustangs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fa8690958d1748807d8b090e42cff20c6f4a6d409e1ef15f212b1629e047b3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cal Poly Mustangsof California-San Diego Tritons, Cal Poly Mustangs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68ce…d06dbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 78c | 3,316$2,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,595.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 42c | 1,696$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.18 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 20c | 1,628$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.18 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed California-San Diego Tritons | 4c | 1,202$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 104 | 8.7%9 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa0…7894backed California-San Diego Tritons | 79c | 999.98$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…f107backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 27c | 700.69$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.2 | 423 | 27.2%115 W · 308 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 46c | 611.23$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.06 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked California-San Diego Tritons | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 160 | 8.1%13 W · 147 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked California-San Diego Tritons | 68c | 576.92$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.94 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 23c | 464.78$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.83 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed California-San Diego Tritons | 33c | 453.4$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.35 | 383 | 43.6%167 W · 216 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 76c | 358.25$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 97 | 71.1%69 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 29c | 299.25$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.05 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed California-San Diego Tritons | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 30c | 285.71$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 26c | 274.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.16 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed California-San Diego Tritons | 18c | 223.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 133 | 13.5%18 W · 115 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed California-San Diego Tritons | 75c | 221.27$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.87 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 28c | 193$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 614 | 46.1%283 W · 331 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dca…a7acbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 80c | 188$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 252 | 54.8%138 W · 114 L | -15.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 20c | 182.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 21c | 171.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.84 | 149 | 25.5%38 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed California-San Diego Tritons | 74c | 157$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.45 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 33c | 113.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 17c | 82.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…01d4backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 18c | 78.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +251.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 41c | 75.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…93b1backed California-San Diego Tritons | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 27c | 71.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 25c | 71.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 19c | 68.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…2da7backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 28c | 52.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 32c | 51.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d2…b8eebacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 39c | 47.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 77c | 42.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed California-San Diego Tritons | 74c | 40.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…05c8backed California-San Diego Tritons | 62c | 38.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed California-San Diego Tritons | 71c | 33.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed California-San Diego Tritons | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed California-San Diego Tritons | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce6…de1fbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 80c | 18.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 70cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.