College Football · resolved market
Spread: Texas State (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6913a4050669a74ffd30f7cba7dcd95b102d293dd8044068e40ae5447a3f871b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Stateof Texas State, Rice
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rice | 33c | 20,332$6,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,683.54 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Texas State | 66c | 18,334$12,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,231.56 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Texas State | 65c | 8,000$5,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800.91 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Texas State | 68c | 7,150$4,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,261.03 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Rice | 34c | 3,676$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.17 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Rice | 35c | 2,857$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rice | 58c | 2,598$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.47 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Rice | 36c | 2,500$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas State | 68c | 1,079$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.06 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Rice | 35c | 1,010$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.28 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Rice | 40c | 968.75$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.5 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Texas State | 20c | 750$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 86 | 29.1%25 W · 61 L | +15.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +361.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Rice | 31c | 557$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas State | 59c | 345.97$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Texas State | 65c | 312$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Rice | 30c | 279$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Rice | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Rice | 37c | 270.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Rice | 37c | 268$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Texas State | 47c | 238.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.37 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Rice | 35c | 230.73$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Rice | 37c | 224.18$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Texas State | 31c | 203.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Texas State | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.49per pick | 14cpaid | +322.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Texas State | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 8cpaid | +752.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Texas State | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Texas State | 53c | 125$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Rice | 47c | 125$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Rice | 34c | 114.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Rice | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Texas State | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rice | 49c | 65.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Rice | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Rice | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Rice | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…bc05backed Rice | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf8…2540backed Rice | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Texas State | 62c | 29.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…01d4backed Texas State | 66c | 15.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas State (-13.5)this page
- O/U 59.5Under won
- Rice vs. Texas StateTexas State won
- Rice vs. Texas State: 1H MoneylineTexas State won
- Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 55.5Under won
- Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 56.5Under won
- Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 57.5Under won
- Spread: Texas State (-11.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-14.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-16.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-17.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-18.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-19.5)Texas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.