College Football · resolved market
Spread: Texas State (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e1d1e617681c6092dd733ccf8dcd0443e92204321e5628f0255e1064fabbcdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Stateof Texas State, Rice
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rice | 30c | 6,564$1,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,948.79 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…e4f6backed Texas State | 70c | 4,278$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Texas State | 68c | 3,213$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.67 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +40%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Rice | 45c | 1,178$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.88 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Rice | 30c | 809.12$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.92 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Texas State | 67c | 749.12$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.12 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Texas State | 55c | 454.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.44 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Rice | 29c | 409$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.61 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Rice | 48c | 316.67$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Rice | 31c | 299.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Texas State | 70c | 233.75$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Texas State | 70c | 224.27$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 80 | 78.8%63 W · 17 L | +9.9wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +21%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…5379backed Texas State | 56c | 202.34$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…3984backed Texas State | 55c | 167.27$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Texas State | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Rice | 36c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Rice | 30c | 108.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Texas State | 56c | 89.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Texas State | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Rice | 49c | 50.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Texas State | 51c | 50.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rice | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…9289backed Texas State | 56c | 25.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas State (-11.5)this page
- O/U 59.5Under won
- Rice vs. Texas StateTexas State won
- Rice vs. Texas State: 1H MoneylineTexas State won
- Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 55.5Under won
- Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 56.5Under won
- Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 57.5Under won
- Spread: Texas State (-13.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-14.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-16.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-17.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-18.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-19.5)Texas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.