College Football · resolved market
Spread: Texas State (-19.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6eccb1d29038558d3ddcdf94aa0dc1d5d60295214e63942efc643957f36cb87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Stateof Texas State, Rice
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb889…a430backed Texas State | 50c | 88,193$43,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,196.26 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Rice | 50c | 50,000$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,000 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Rice | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,399.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Rice | 50c | 12,003$5,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,997.69 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Rice | 50c | 11,111$5,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,555.5 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Texas State | 48c | 7,136$3,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,710.6 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Rice | 50c | 5,980$2,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,980.39 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Texas State | 48c | 5,465$2,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,818.86 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Rice | 50c | 2,001$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rice | 50c | 1,422$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Texas State | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +40%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Texas State | 51c | 376.2$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Rice | 9c | 341.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.49per pick | 14cpaid | +322.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Texas State | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Texas State | 48c | 181.18$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.21 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Texas State | 50c | 70.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Rice | 51c | 47.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Rice | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Rice | 50c | 39.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…6dd0backed Rice | 50c | 36.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…bf36backed Rice | 50c | 30.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Texas State | 49c | 23.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas State (-19.5)this page
- O/U 59.5Under won
- Rice vs. Texas StateTexas State won
- Rice vs. Texas State: 1H MoneylineTexas State won
- Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 55.5Under won
- Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 56.5Under won
- Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 57.5Under won
- Spread: Texas State (-11.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-13.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-14.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-16.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-17.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-18.5)Texas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.