College Football · resolved market
Spread: Texas State (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa676dfbaaa9c6aa29736493a92e7523b056b9548911a667068d1cb055e120b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Stateof Texas State, Rice
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Texas State | 61c | 5,782$3,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,230.32 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rice | 39c | 4,932$1,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,912.05 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rice | 71c | 3,212$2,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,282.15 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas State | 55c | 2,280$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.07 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas State | 57c | 1,998$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.04 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Rice | 45c | 1,456$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Texas State | 11c | 1,363$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.07 | 86 | 29.1%25 W · 61 L | +15.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +361.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…6dd0backed Rice | 46c | 1,086$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf642…0c19backed Rice | 45c | 1,042$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Texas State | 62c | 1,029$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.81 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…de83backed Rice | 46c | 745.65$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Rice | 36c | 619$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.84 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Rice | 37c | 557$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.48 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba81…dc35backed Texas State | 40c | 420$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Texas State | 10c | 400$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.49per pick | 14cpaid | +322.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Texas State | 55c | 358.89$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.5 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Texas State | 61c | 325$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.05 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Texas State | 16c | 308.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.78 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Rice | 48c | 180.96$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Texas State | 57c | 175.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rice | 43c | 174.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Rice | 40c | 143$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Rice | 36c | 117$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Texas State | 52c | 103.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Rice | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Texas State | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +242.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Texas State | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Texas State | 58c | 85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Texas State | 51c | 74.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…794fbacked Texas State | 47c | 70.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Rice | 44c | 67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Rice | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Texas State | 53c | 51.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Rice | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Texas State | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Texas State | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…4627backed Texas State | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Rice | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba7c…38c7backed Texas State | 51c | 29.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8716…5830backed Texas State | 58c | 26.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…01d4backed Texas State | 61c | 17.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas State (-14.5)this page
- O/U 59.5Under won
- Rice vs. Texas StateTexas State won
- Rice vs. Texas State: 1H MoneylineTexas State won
- Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 55.5Under won
- Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 56.5Under won
- Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 57.5Under won
- Spread: Texas State (-11.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-13.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-16.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-17.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-18.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-19.5)Texas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.