College Football · resolved market
Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 56.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d534366b30d0a0409c4f3cd642be1fd8774ca9441dc794b91a4dbf5221bbe9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $226,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $225,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c3a…8679backed Under | 56c | 161,477$90,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71,477.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 42c | 119,637$49,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,700.44 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 45c | 43,578$19,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,655.02 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d1…dbcbbacked Over | 48c | 10,222$4,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,950 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1be4…47c3backed Over | 46c | 8,600$3,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,956 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc38a…aff3backed Under | 54c | 8,600$4,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,956 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 6,911$2,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,764.21 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Over | 44c | 6,420$2,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,824.8 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 6c | 5,906$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.82 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 22c | 5,409$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,234.79 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 4,928$2,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,414.77 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 4,570$2,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.11 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5873…f69abacked Over | 29c | 4,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 8c | 2,274$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.56 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 10c | 1,030$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed Over | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 2cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 65c | 888$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.64 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 54c | 551$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.52 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 52c | 544.54$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.38 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 13c | 399.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 67c | 381.5$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.6 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Over | 48c | 312.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 56c | 240$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.36 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…ce7fbacked Over | 12c | 133.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…8de5backed Under | 15c | 129.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Over | 45c | 98.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d82…ffb2backed Under | 55c | 66.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 44c | 55.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 53c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89fd…da5dbacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +59%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 64c | 43.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…94ebbacked Over | 46c | 41.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Over | 46c | 34.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Under | 54c | 25.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 56.5this page
- O/U 59.5Under won
- Rice vs. Texas StateTexas State won
- Rice vs. Texas State: 1H MoneylineTexas State won
- Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 55.5Under won
- Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 57.5Under won
- Spread: Texas State (-11.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-13.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-14.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-16.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-17.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-18.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-19.5)Texas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.