College Football · resolved market
Spread: Texas State (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd18245c63aad1a08b0ef8b7f8b361b1270076a172b14296fccd05d2de73fb2fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Stateof Texas State, Rice
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Texas State | 53c | 29,187$15,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,598.25 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Rice | 46c | 26,100$12,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,015.35 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Rice | 10c | 4,908$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.84 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Rice | 54c | 1,532$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.49 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Rice | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f7…7584backed Texas State | 53c | 744.23$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Texas State | 58c | 670$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.4 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.34per pick | 55cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Rice | 49c | 610.07$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.93 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Rice | 47c | 600$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27dc…0102backed Rice | 51c | 503.57$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Texas State | 51c | 432$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.68 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Rice | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rice | 46c | 339.26$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.95 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…c690backed Rice | 47c | 285.48$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Texas State | 59c | 262.67$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Rice | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rice | 44c | 241.51$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.07 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Rice | 26c | 172.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Texas State | 59c | 156$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Texas State | 52c | 133.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4291…b6bdbacked Texas State | 51c | 129.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Texas State | 56c | 123.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Rice | 47c | 109.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rice | 52c | 105.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Rice | 41c | 102.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…8469backed Texas State | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Rice | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99af…fedcbacked Texas State | 58c | 98.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdffc…17f1backed Rice | 46c | 84.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Texas State | 55c | 80.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed Texas State | 54c | 69.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Texas State | 51c | 60.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Rice | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Rice | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Rice | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4546…c148backed Texas State | 56c | 48.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Rice | 50c | 47.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Rice | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…6b37backed Rice | 49c | 45.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Texas State | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Texas State | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x678d…ee46backed Texas State | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…4c2cbacked Texas State | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833e…f756backed Rice | 43c | 33.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf8…2540backed Rice | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Texas State | 51c | 28.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Texas State | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…04e9backed Texas State | 55c | 24.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Rice | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Rice | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6666…c652backed Texas State | 59c | 19.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…03c4backed Texas State | 59c | 17.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas State (-16.5)this page
- O/U 59.5Under won
- Rice vs. Texas StateTexas State won
- Rice vs. Texas State: 1H MoneylineTexas State won
- Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 55.5Under won
- Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 56.5Under won
- Rice vs. Texas State: O/U 57.5Under won
- Spread: Texas State (-11.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-13.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-14.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-17.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-18.5)Texas State won
- Spread: Texas State (-19.5)Texas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.