Australian A League · resolved market
Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cb54c5b2f726145d151244314de8d0602c5747219162709328cbed1a38093ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac47…d234backed Over | 61c | 25,750$15,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,707.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 18,595$7,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,052.09 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 39c | 7,600$2,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,636 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 57c | 2,639$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.75 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 46c | 1,445$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.92 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…3b60backed Over | 57c | 1,023$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Under | 76c | 1,020$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb461…d1dabacked Over | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Under | 52c | 970.55$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…958ebacked Over | 38c | 510$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 25c | 469.23$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.78 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 55c | 464.56$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.51 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed Over | 41c | 437.98$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 63c | 419.6$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.35 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Over | 54c | 360$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 339.49$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.47 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 43c | 337.96$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.55 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 282.53$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.63 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…054ebacked Over | 32c | 243$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 38c | 199.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.47 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 62c | 160$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…e801backed Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Under | 56c | 126.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 122.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Under | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…2ee5backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…47a4backed Over | 48c | 96.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Over | 25c | 96.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x916d…308abacked Under | 53c | 64.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…79a5backed Under | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc69…78b3backed Over | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Under | 57c | 51.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 53c | 47.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 53c | 47.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…6ecebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 46c | 28.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…4546backed Under | 55c | 28.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 62c | 26.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…3e75backed Under | 75c | 20.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…01d4backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdda…598ebacked Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-1.5)Macarthur FC won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.