Australian A League · resolved market
Auckland FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4de252b7cf0a1937fccb4d92f9c121c995bcbbbd4662a63cf76c694c5b23ca2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 10,000$5,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,019.99 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 9,971$5,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,005.46 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 6,687$3,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,417.49 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 49c | 4,869$2,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,496.11 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Under | 51c | 4,500$2,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,295 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Over | 51c | 4,402$2,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,157.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Over | 51c | 2,922$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 50c | 1,875$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 52c | 1,578$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.15 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked Over | 52c | 1,407$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Under | 53c | 1,036$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…c607backed Over | 52c | 956.15$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Over | 51c | 614.93$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 50c | 590$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Over | 47c | 424.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Under | 53c | 380.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 75c | 267$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…629fbacked Over | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…bc95backed Over | 52c | 151.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 49c | 136.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…2be7backed Under | 51c | 131.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…2ee5backed Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…d55dbacked Over | 51c | 71.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Over | 49c | 65.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Over | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2e…1006backed Over | 52c | 32.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 50c | 32.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Over | 53c | 31.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 54c | 19.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Auckland FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Auckland FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Auckland FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.