NHL · resolved market
NHL: Penguins vs. Rangers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4790d2431faec0658eeb5ebcd0b7f2525a0aa11b650f7c621dbab3593a851459
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rangersof Penguins, Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Penguins | 39c | 1,963$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.43 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Penguins | 29c | 1,579$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.81 | 313 | 34.8%109 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Penguins | 43c | 1,025$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.79 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Rangers | 58c | 1,000$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.91 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Rangers | 71c | 785$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.4 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Penguins | 41c | 703.57$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.47 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Penguins | 42c | 616.67$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Rangers | 57c | 526$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddad…c3dabacked Penguins | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675b…822abacked Rangers | 59c | 381.36$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Rangers | 59c | 313.1$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.87 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Rangers | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Rangers | 58c | 270$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Penguins | 7c | 165$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b6…4eddbacked Rangers | 78c | 105.13$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Rangers | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 731 | 57.5%420 W · 311 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a3…cc69backed Penguins | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Rangers | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…fb94backed Penguins | 42c | 65.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Penguins | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Penguins | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rangers | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e4…1d1ebacked Rangers | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…5be6backed Rangers | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.