Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ec88f96176782faab70d5b7a97b06398b6a0c25c3c7d2a0e6d6cc57a9878e1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 38,754$8,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,377.51 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 28,251$21,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,792.29 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 78c | 9,013$7,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,060.81 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Under | 78c | 5,999$4,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,679.56 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 24c | 3,999$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,039.17 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 80c | 2,500$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.75 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 71c | 1,409$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 32c | 1,097$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 27c | 888.01$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.31 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 28c | 802.6$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.82 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.16 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 31c | 588.66$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.47 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 77c | 578.89$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.64 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 35c | 572.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.03 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 29c | 381.79$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.07 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Under | 65c | 270$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Over | 20c | 243.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.16 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 16c | 202$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.68 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…b52dbacked Under | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 68c | 156.25$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…773bbacked Over | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…92f7backed Under | 66c | 151.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9475…a29ebacked Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Under | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 64c | 130$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfd…2818backed Under | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd573…f99ebacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Under | 66c | 94.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 31c | 84.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…a616backed Under | 69c | 80.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Under | 80c | 73.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ed…c7d5backed Under | 77c | 65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Over | 33c | 57.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +80%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 31c | 57.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 33c | 56.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 75c | 53.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Over | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7b…6a44backed Under | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…8afcbacked Over | 35c | 46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +72%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 30c | 45.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…4313backed Under | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Under | 77c | 38.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Under | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf18…7a1abacked Under | 78c | 29.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Under | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Under | 53c | 19.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…c864backed Under | 78c | 19.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Under | 79c | 13.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…9479backed Over | 77c | 13.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5this page
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.