Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf68836abe2351c3206b5f5f02c72e299b4eecf4b58a169e8d8d3d942aec49cd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed2c…9597backed No | 32c | 3,659$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.02 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Yes | 68c | 1,699$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.53 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 38c | 1,288$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 68c | 808.82$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.82 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Yes | 70c | 495.55$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.07 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 24c | 491.46$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.49 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Yes | 69c | 434.93$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.93 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…e8a6backed Yes | 68c | 282.96$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.55 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 15c | 261.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes | 62c | 200.13$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 27c | 190.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 63c | 151.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…315bbacked Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 67c | 122$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9390…6303backed Yes | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 53cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes | 68c | 77.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed No | 33c | 74.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f5…8797backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 33c | 69.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 80c | 69.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 22c | 66.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Yes | 75c | 61.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…644bbacked No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…dc1cbacked Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…664cbacked Yes | 68c | 48.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…5f03backed Yes | 65c | 39.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…48ccbacked No | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…ecebbacked No | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Yes | 68c | 33.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889d…e36bbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd6…4ed9backed Yes | 69c | 24.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…0f2dbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.