TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$335,050
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$350,688

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $335,050 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Under51c216,165$110,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110,170.572759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Over49c100,000$49,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,0001566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+33.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over49c41,259$20,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,235.871,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under51c31,979$16,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,160.435052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over49c14,981$7,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,575.473,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over49c13,754$6,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,014.4416652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over49c13,373$6,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,820.2317251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1007062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over43c8,589$3,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,898.862,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1748…a816backed Over50c8,300$4,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,174.241741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over49c7,913$3,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,035.5544749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over49c7,704$3,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,932.5578248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over49c5,118$2,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,610.373961.5%24 W · 15 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+26.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over50c4,823$2,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,424.0610154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x538a…0823backed Under51c4,500$2,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,295540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3926…7e9ebacked Over50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick49cpaid+68.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Over48c3,995$1,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,077.381833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under57c3,516$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00015540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Over49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5307057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5306459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf6a6…a6d3backed Under69c2,910$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f12…70d4backed Over50c2,408$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.162650%13 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over50c2,363$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.881,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under53c2,352$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.8153645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a58…149dbacked Under1c2,189$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.354119.5%8 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71a5…c3eabacked Under53c2,143$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.94850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over47c2,126$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.538336.1%30 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Under64c2,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8566…c626backed Under47c1,827$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.812236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-31.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Under57c1,765$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.991435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5677…2ce9backed Over57c1,677$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.11747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over38c1,251$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.84542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90a5…9dccbacked Over36c1,190$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.866761.2%41 W · 26 L+13.8wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Over60c1,071$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.032245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over51c1,025$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.25933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over49c980$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.811056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe77f…8793backed Over50c962.06$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.061957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Over49c905$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.557639.5%30 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over49c816.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.3322747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Over51c800$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39231145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over49c800$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4088764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdc7c…958ebacked Under3c694.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.843020%6 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43de…d169backed Over53c660.38$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.382254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under52c566.79$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.7348658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Over55c545.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.452050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Over38c540$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.235052%26 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9453…22cfbacked Over53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2351154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x611a…e63ebacked Under6c499.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32345.9%2 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5611…e5f4backed Over53c450.94$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.943847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…db98backed Over45c444.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.752133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x064a…245dbacked Under40c444$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.61127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.5wins-0.32per pick59cpaid-60.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under50c439.39$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.6215742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over41c430.81$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.812948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over49c420$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.222854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over49c420$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.215454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Over49c420$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.28864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1243…2a64backed Over50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3bf…762dbacked Over73c380.56$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1033773%27 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over53c342.16$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.0412832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb53c…eb0cbacked Over39c340$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.961353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over49c335.92$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.9211857.6%68 W · 50 L+15.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under47c332.94$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.4814364.3%92 W · 51 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over49c330$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.313957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over49c330$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.314355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Over49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15311860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15312162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x329c…18dfbacked Over49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1531957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f1c…dc61backed Over54c299.99$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over43c282.31$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.3120753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Over58c259.93$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.936549.2%32 W · 33 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Over50c253$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.717759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over49c250$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.58461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over49c250$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.512858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over49c250$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.525659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8816…7082backed Over40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1505347.2%25 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd76…b935backed Over42c249.99$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1454254.8%23 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+38.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over49c220$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.212757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2bdf…56f5backed Over47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.773941%16 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04c0…0927backed Under48c206.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10215453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Over49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1028952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa40d…f4d0backed Over53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10213256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5fe…b52dbacked Under7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Over51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.083339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over49c190$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.99659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over52c190$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.217055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Over53c188.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.674252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Over53c184.91$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.919243.5%40 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22b9…6ae2backed Over55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.82977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+46.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Over49c180$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.88261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over49c180$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.812356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over59c170.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0619055.3%105 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over49c170$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.711458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over49c170$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.76556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Over49c170$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.713859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over49c170$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.712458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over49c170$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.76460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over49c170$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.712358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4910552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.