Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x895ebc90433bcceb4cd0c42c2c97f05fc3b86937d0c1c84ef3c15ba9926a27c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 67c | 7,999$5,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,679.66 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 7,916$2,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,393.96 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 29c | 4,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.99 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 32c | 3,706$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.42 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…a029backed Under | 1c | 3,077$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed Over | 72c | 3,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Over | 71c | 2,500$1,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.51 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 74c | 2,444$1,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.86 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 28c | 1,932$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…aaccbacked Over | 71c | 1,400$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…762dbacked Over | 78c | 897.2$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.83 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 28c | 807.01$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.89 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 28c | 800.38$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.09 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 73c | 689.16$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.16 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 27c | 612.73$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.44 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 27c | 596.25$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.15 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 37c | 537.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Under | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Under | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9505…1707backed Under | 20c | 348.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c1…692cbacked Under | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Under | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…01eebacked Over | 67c | 299.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Over | 73c | 274$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…e8a6backed Over | 71c | 270.42$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 66c | 238.81$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 29c | 205.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3766…a0e4backed Under | 27c | 192$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…9127backed Over | 68c | 189.18$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…0b87backed Over | 73c | 163.34$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0d…0789backed Under | 33c | 152.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471c…9e94backed Over | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 56cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…ddbcbacked Over | 73c | 137$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 36c | 120.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…271bbacked Over | 72c | 118.91$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 26c | 113.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821e…4e0ebacked Over | 69c | 109.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9390…6303backed Over | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 53cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67f8…265dbacked Over | 74c | 94.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6167…229dbacked Over | 74c | 94.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 33c | 73.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ed…c7d5backed Over | 71c | 72.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 73c | 71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 71c | 69.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…bc89backed Over | 73c | 67.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…516dbacked Over | 68c | 66.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Over | 66c | 63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…38fcbacked Over | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 72c | 60.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 28c | 59.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 26c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked Over | 74c | 44.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…2d79backed Over | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 73c | 39.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 28c | 37.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…ba8ebacked Over | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…790fbacked Over | 71c | 30.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 36 | 88.9%32 W · 4 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 71c | 21.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f84…0458backed Over | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0879…4d2fbacked Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…6cb7backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e89…c2d9backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Over | 73c | 13.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5this page
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.