Australian A League · resolved market
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2c79987f7bb636831eca1716f0dcd344a9ab4a9ba5dc2b6d61e4d82b18d5ef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3510…2492backed Over | 47c | 1,587$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.32 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under | 35c | 1,563$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 56c | 1,499$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.56 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 59c | 1,377$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.5 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc277…9d94backed Under | 66c | 1,220$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 58c | 1,214$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.49 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 45c | 1,107$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.8 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…f3b8backed Under | 42c | 991.38$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed Over | 51c | 554.99$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.94 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 60c | 510$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 59c | 421.3$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.3 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Under | 51c | 392.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b6…6ab2backed Under | 48c | 385.42$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 41c | 319.19$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.06 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -65%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…224dbacked Under | 76c | 247.55$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 73c | 231.67$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 223.67$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 28c | 207.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.51 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 33c | 162.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…2de2backed Under | 45c | 149.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…e822backed Under | 77c | 130.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 125.62$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Over | 75c | 123.09$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 59c | 116.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Over | 54c | 113.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…07c7backed Over | 56c | 105.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3490backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…62d3backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…958ebacked Over | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Under | 42c | 66.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 51c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x957a…c34dbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…7eb8backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 49.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Under | 43c | 39.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.43per pick | 56cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc69…78b3backed Over | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Over | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 58c | 21.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0499…7066backed Over | 63c | 21.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Over | 53c | 20.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…b300backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-1.5)Wellington Phoenix FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.