Serie A · resolved market
SSC Napoli vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03529965c92326c1434d9605c7a9cfd462bae19fa390dc9e37b3d78de3c250c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5873…f69abacked Over | 21c | 5,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 14c | 4,103$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.25 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 10c | 1,188$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.26 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 859.16$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.02 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 10c | 723$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Under | 72c | 549.27$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Over | 12c | 434.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 78c | 327.36$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Under | 77c | 311.52$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 11c | 299.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 75c | 287.6$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 63c | 255.27$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.45 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…0b58backed Over | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 11c | 225$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Under | 54c | 164.69$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 24c | 147.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 31c | 132.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 16c | 128.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 29c | 123.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 26c | 115.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e84…b7f6backed Over | 12c | 115.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 16c | 98.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…7a49backed Over | 12c | 97.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 67c | 94.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…d57ebacked Over | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b7…8b0cbacked Over | 24c | 77.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 72c | 74.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 27c | 70.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed Over | 29c | 69.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…4bf1backed Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc504…8cfebacked Over | 47c | 68.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…63febacked Over | 33c | 65.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd716…bad1backed Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 21c | 55.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9dbabacked Under | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x918e…c648backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6c…7105backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 4.5this page
- SSC Napoli vs. Hellas Verona FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SSC Napoli vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)Hellas Verona FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.