NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7b2c40b34329b666c6c7808057fe24b8ed656a617fcffe8b2e2eaf0cf91d593
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 1,988$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.88 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 914.29$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.29 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 41c | 858.75$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.66 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 52c | 730$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.6 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…a439backed Over | 52c | 700$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 549$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.36 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Under | 59c | 536.51$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.87 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Under | 46c | 346.88$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.57 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Under | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 59c | 326$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.46 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 56c | 325$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Under | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 57c | 244$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 46c | 240.86$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.1 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Over | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 54c | 187$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 42c | 124.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 62c | 106.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd232…d01ebacked Under | 54c | 86.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 38c | 76.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Over | 55c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Over | 55c | 69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 33c | 56.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 56c | 55.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 44c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x130c…782cbacked Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 144 | 20.1%29 W · 115 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 72c | 39.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 46c | 33.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Under | 61c | 32.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 42c | 29.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Under | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 57c | 21.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 237.5this page
- Jazz vs. ThunderThunder won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 239.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 240.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Thunder (-19.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.