NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5ca40efa0cabc2a87fba709411d653c8690830f3163c3418ccfb7e831256b7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 53c | 27,366$14,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,820.54 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 15,613$7,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,290.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 8,000$4,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,160 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 6,544$3,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,011.37 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 48c | 4,742$2,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450.29 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 48c | 3,998$1,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068.9 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 48c | 2,826$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.52 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 2,462$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.08 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 2,400$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 220 | 35.5%78 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 1,141$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.86 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 57c | 1,067$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.67 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…56e7backed Under | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 45c | 778$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.9 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Under | 52c | 574.26$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.34 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Under | 47c | 488$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.36 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…ffcabacked Under | 51c | 393$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.43 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 265.27$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.97 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Over | 52c | 246$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.08 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Under | 47c | 226.38$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 162$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 47c | 128.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 47c | 110.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…4dc6backed Under | 53c | 39.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 48c | 23.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 240.5this page
- Jazz vs. ThunderThunder won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 237.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 239.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Thunder (-19.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.