Champions League · resolved market
Will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc348b550b2ca6bc68f0f9ce40e8ce4ae5f601649e3a8fa7c1c54e2a943a5439c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 58c | 3,314$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.02 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 15c | 3,149$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.05 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 50c | 1,265$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.66 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Yes | 15c | 1,211$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f0…1af3backed Yes | 17c | 1,149$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e0…b310backed No | 45c | 1,135$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…b9cfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…412fbacked Yes | 52c | 854.01$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 69c | 840$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.6 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 78c | 784.41$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.93 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ced…f699backed Yes | 70c | 642.86$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e9…8b5bbacked Yes | 9c | 433.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…366cbacked No | 57c | 370$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5231…1f75backed Yes | 63c | 292.18$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e8…9c65backed Yes | 17c | 266.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…f7debacked Yes | 19c | 262.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 41c | 250$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b2…841cbacked No | 59c | 248.22$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 51c | 216.12$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe939…2af4backed Yes | 14c | 202.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4b…f1dabacked Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed No | 34c | 126.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2557…d991backed Yes | 16c | 123.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…80c0backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e21…4d75backed Yes | 15c | 113.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 36c | 109.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…6c29backed No | 39c | 101.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…bb64backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5270…c74cbacked Yes | 67c | 92.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…5d53backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf70…50e9backed Yes | 61c | 82.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb18…57ecbacked Yes | 12c | 81.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Yes | 59c | 72.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…51e9backed Yes | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…4f2dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…dcecbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…e20fbacked Yes | 63c | 47.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bff…15a7backed No | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…5376backed Yes | 70c | 33.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6e…db70backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c4…a877backed Yes | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -58%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid?this page
- Will Real Madrid beat Borussia Dortmund?Yes won
- Will the match between Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.