Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7da66c246e66ff2a44897d42ff9cdf83cb6ae28beaf3ad723ef9f90c5249be3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfab…d980backed Yes | 39c | 27,209$10,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,611.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…ec8bbacked No | 61c | 27,209$16,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,611.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4b…f6dbbacked Yes | 47c | 8,093$3,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,787.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 50c | 6,000$2,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,022 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 18c | 4,738$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.32 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 1c | 3,957$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,500$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.38 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…bfcebacked Yes | 4c | 2,164$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 47c | 1,608$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.68 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 64c | 1,521$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 50c | 1,196$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.8 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +10.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 8c | 917.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 31c | 700$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.16 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 694.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 5c | 542$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 56c | 297.5$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.22 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 71c | 237$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 232$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…60d2backed No | 67c | 148.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b8…f5c8backed No | 63c | 130.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 61c | 102.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6218…36e8backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0e…5aacbacked Yes | 50c | 96.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 92.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…959cbacked Yes | 25c | 79.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…4846backed No | 58c | 63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…dcecbacked Yes | 34c | 60.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 46c | 60.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…f66dbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7364…d44ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4782…e79ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 21?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 20?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 22?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 23?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 24?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.